Question: Are We on Track To Reduce Carbon Emissions with the Present Rate of Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Production?
At present hybrid and electric vehicle sales combined represent less than 3% of the market for all vehicles sold. Most of that number is hybrid sales. For example, Autoweek reports automakers sold 315,761 hybrids last year, representing 2.4 percent of the total vehicle market, with hybrid sales down 9.9 % for the year.
According to a recent study by Wintergreen Research markets for electric vehicles at 685 units in 2008 are anticipated to reach 32.7 million autos shipped by 2015, growing in response to demand for a renewable energy powered vehicle that lowers the total cost of ownership by a significant amount.
While that's great news, the Foundation For the Automobile and Society reports that the total global car fleet is predicted to triple by 2050 - over 80% of that in the developing world. The organization has launched a 50 by 50 Global Fuel Economy Initiative with a goal of reducing vehicle fuel consumption 50% by 2050 overall by making conventional vehicles more fuel efficient.
This raises the question: Are we on track to reduce total vehicle carbon emissions with these trends and predictions in mind, or not?
The TATA Nano went on sale in India recently. It's the first US $2,500 equivalent priced gasoline powered car to be mass produced in India, with 250,000 expected to sell this year alone. An electric version will only be sold in Norway. India also produces the REVA electric car, which costs three times as much as the Nano to buy.
A 2007 EPRI-NRDC Study found that widespread use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the United States could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potentially improve ambient air quality. A recent Boston Consulting Group study concludes we are unlikely to reach sufficient numbers of electric and hybrid vehicles by 2020 to impact transport CO2 emissions significantly.
Some say the global economic recession has caused developed countries to do less to control carbon emissions than they could. Others point to the economic slow down as helping countries like China to come closer to reducing overall carbon emissions.
The effect of the economic crisis on carbon trading markets has made it cheaper for EU countries to pollute than invest in renewable energy. Now the U.S. is poised to adopt a similar cap and trade system for carbon that many argue is inferior to a carbon tax.
Why is carbon so important? Without including the carbon cost, which we calculate to be 19.4 pounds per gallon: (see top of page side bar) in vehicle and fuel/energy pricing there will continue to be little economic incentive for U.S. vehicle buyers to choose hybrid and electric drive vehicles, despite new government incentives.
Some form of Carbon pricing is necessary to drive the market for sustainable vehicles, and have a positive net effect in reducing transport carbon emissions. California already requires a global warming score on all new car stickers, and allows you to score vehicles on the states Drive Clean website.
A battery industry expert, Dr. Menahem Anderman predicts that gas will need to got to US $7.00 per gallon, as it already has in Europe, before plug-in and battery electric cars will be purchased in large enough numbers in the US to have an impact on carbon emissions.
On a more global scale, the UN Climate change Plan if adopted next December at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, will call for sweeping changes in carbon pricing throughout the world economy favoring clean vehicle technologies. In fact the EU is already considering a transport carbon emissions trading scheme.
The bottom line is that the problems with transportation and carbon emissions are global, and require global economic, as well as technological solutions. What can you do? Suggestion for action links are listed on the right side of this page.
Best Regards,
Peter Oppewall
Director, EVtransPortal
6444 N. Glenwood Ave #3
Chicago, Illinois 60626
